Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 3-8
Synopsis
A strong upper high will persist over the central/northern Plains through the end of this week into the early weekend. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West this week; meanwhile, daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. An upper-level trough is forecast to move near/into the Pacific Northwest early Day 4/Thursday, potentially suppressing moisture south and eastward. However, model spread and ambiguity in the spatial extent/strength of troughing yields significant uncertainty in the progression of the upper pattern across the West. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 2-3/Tuesday-Wednesday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period.
Central to northern High Plains
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Wednesday through at least Day 4/Thursday. While RH is expected to recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels and hot daytime temperatures. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained; however, may need to be confined in future outlooks as predictability increases in the evolution of the upper pattern.
Portions of northeastern California and the Central Valley, western Great Basin, and far south-central Oregon
Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-late week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of lightning holdovers from wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday to account for this threat. Farther north, guidance has backed off on the timing of stronger winds overlapping low RH, resulting in 40% Critical probabilities being removed on Day 3/Wednesday across northeastern California and adjacent areas. Yet, the potential for stronger flow amid a returning dry airmass on Day 4/Thursday warrants the introduction of 40% Critical probabilities.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
000 FNUS28 KWNS 132056 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will persist over the central/northern Plains through the end of this week into the early weekend. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West this week; meanwhile, daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. An upper-level trough is forecast to move near/into the Pacific Northwest early Day 4/Thursday, potentially suppressing moisture south and eastward. However, model spread and ambiguity in the spatial extent/strength of troughing yields significant uncertainty in the progression of the upper pattern across the West. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 2-3/Tuesday-Wednesday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Wednesday through at least Day 4/Thursday. While RH is expected to recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels and hot daytime temperatures. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained; however, may need to be confined in future outlooks as predictability increases in the evolution of the upper pattern. ...Portions of northeastern California and the Central Valley, western Great Basin, and far south-central Oregon... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-late week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of lightning holdovers from wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday to account for this threat. Farther north, guidance has backed off on the timing of stronger winds overlapping low RH, resulting in 40% Critical probabilities being removed on Day 3/Wednesday across northeastern California and adjacent areas. Yet, the potential for stronger flow amid a returning dry airmass on Day 4/Thursday warrants the introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$