Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 3-8
Synopsis
An upper-level low will enter the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this weekend with an accompanying 60-70 kt jet over the Great Basin. This pattern may provide broader precipitation chances and much cooler temperatures to the northwestern CONUS, thus subduing fire weather concerns; however, strong southwesterly winds amid critically low RH values may support a broader fire weather threat in the Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday. As troughing departs into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, a very dry airmass and near normal temperatures will reside over the western CONUS. Simultaneously, ridging is forecast to build across the Southeast favoring drier conditions and above normal temperatures.
Day 3/Saturday
A robust upper low will impinge upon the northwestern U.S. on Day 3/Saturday, amplifying west-southwesterly flow over northern CA and the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance depicts expansive 60-80% probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph amid critically low RH in northeastern CA, northern NV, southeastern OR, and southern ID. Despite modest ERCs, drought-stressed fuels could support new ignitions given the severity of meteorological conditions. As a result, 40% Critical probabilities were maintained across the region. Farther west, gusty west/southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph and RH values of 15-25% are expected in the Sacramento Valley. Marginal fuels preclude Critical probabilities at this time; however, new ignitions cannot be ruled out within localized dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/10/2026
000 FNUS28 KWNS 102048 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will enter the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this weekend with an accompanying 60-70 kt jet over the Great Basin. This pattern may provide broader precipitation chances and much cooler temperatures to the northwestern CONUS, thus subduing fire weather concerns; however, strong southwesterly winds amid critically low RH values may support a broader fire weather threat in the Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday. As troughing departs into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, a very dry airmass and near normal temperatures will reside over the western CONUS. Simultaneously, ridging is forecast to build across the Southeast favoring drier conditions and above normal temperatures. ...Day 3/Saturday... A robust upper low will impinge upon the northwestern U.S. on Day 3/Saturday, amplifying west-southwesterly flow over northern CA and the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance depicts expansive 60-80% probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph amid critically low RH in northeastern CA, northern NV, southeastern OR, and southern ID. Despite modest ERCs, drought-stressed fuels could support new ignitions given the severity of meteorological conditions. As a result, 40% Critical probabilities were maintained across the region. Farther west, gusty west/southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph and RH values of 15-25% are expected in the Sacramento Valley. Marginal fuels preclude Critical probabilities at this time; however, new ignitions cannot be ruled out within localized dry fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$