Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 3-8
Southwest/Southern Plains/Southern Great Basin
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday, the aforementioned significant middle-level trough will promote multiple consecutive days of Elevated to Critical fire weather across much of the Southwest and adjacent southern Plains and southern Great Basin. Warm and dry antecedent conditions amid the above normal temperatures associated with the recent ridging will precondition the area for potential ignitions. Southwest to westerly winds sustained at 20-30 mph will combine with single digit to low teen RHs for several hours. Current forecast guidance suggests that overnight RHs will struggle to rise above 30% over much of the region, suggesting burn periods well into the nighttime hours.
On Day 6/Tuesday, as the trough begins to recede to the north, stronger winds aloft will linger over New Mexico and combine with dry surface conditions to promote some threat of critical weather conditions over the region for yet another day.
...California... On Day 4/Sunday, northwest flow on the back side of the trough as it digs over the Great Basin will lead to strong (20 mph sustained) northerly winds combined with afternoon RHs in the teens over the CA Central Valley. Thus, given the anticipated dry fine fuels in place amid the warm and dry antecedent conditions, the 40% probs were maintained to account for the potential fire weather threat.
000 FNUS28 KWNS 142205 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Nearly zonal flow will be in place across much of the eastern US on Day 3/Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough will move over the Intermountain West. By Day 5/Monday, this trough will center over the central Rockies, before ejecting to the north and east across the central Plains. This will present multiple consecutive days of likely Critical fire weather over portions of the Southwest and southern Plains. The pattern then flattens as next week progresses, leading to less certainty of potential fire weather concerns given the colder air across much of the CONUS in the wake of the trough. ...Southwest/Southern Plains/Southern Great Basin... On Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday, the aforementioned significant middle-level trough will promote multiple consecutive days of Elevated to Critical fire weather across much of the Southwest and adjacent southern Plains and southern Great Basin. Warm and dry antecedent conditions amid the above normal temperatures associated with the recent ridging will precondition the area for potential ignitions. Southwest to westerly winds sustained at 20-30 mph will combine with single digit to low teen RHs for several hours. Current forecast guidance suggests that overnight RHs will struggle to rise above 30% over much of the region, suggesting burn periods well into the nighttime hours. On Day 6/Tuesday, as the trough begins to recede to the north, stronger winds aloft will linger over New Mexico and combine with dry surface conditions to promote some threat of critical weather conditions over the region for yet another day. ...California... On Day 4/Sunday, northwest flow on the back side of the trough as it digs over the Great Basin will lead to strong (20 mph sustained) northerly winds combined with afternoon RHs in the teens over the CA Central Valley. Thus, given the anticipated dry fine fuels in place amid the warm and dry antecedent conditions, the 40% probs were maintained to account for the potential fire weather threat. ..Stearns.. 05/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$