Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
Synopsis
Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with multiple embedded impulses, will prevail over the western and northern CONUS as a low-amplitude mid-level trough progresses over the southern Plains today. A surface low will develop over the central Plains and encourage low-level moisture return east of the I-35 corridor. Meanwhile, dry downslope flow will usher in behind the surface low and overspread the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft will overspread this dry airmass, encouraging high-based dry thunderstorm development atop receptive fuels, supporting lightning-induced ignitions over the southern High Plains. Lastly, dry westerly gradient-induced surface winds are expected across the northern Plains, driven by a deepening surface low over western Manitoba. Overall, an active day with relatively widespread wildfire spread conditions are expected over portions of the Plains states today.
Southern High Plains
To the west of a diffuse dryline, a deep and dry boundary layer will manifest by afternoon peak heating as downslope flow also intensifies through the day. Widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected during the afternoon, overlapping 10-15 percent RH from southern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, warranting Elevated highlights given receptive fuels. Critical highlights are also in place from southeast New Mexico into the Texas Rolling Plains, where guidance consensus shows 25+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping RH below 15 percent on a widespread basis for several hours during the afternoon.
Across the southern High Plains, the approach of a low-amplitude mid-level impulse will result in seasonably cold mid-level temperatures overspreading a boundary layer extending up to 500 mb, yielding classic inverted-v soundings beneath thin CAPE (up to 500 J/kg in some forecast soundings). At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border initially by mid afternoon. Strong flow aloft will encourage rapid eastward advancement of these storms, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible with the onset of storm development.
However, a greater concern exists for lightning-induced ignitions as storms progress farther to the east into the Oklahoma Panhandle toward the Texas Rolling Plains. Here, low-level moisture (while overall scant for typical deep-moist convection) will gradually deepen, supporting increased thunderstorm coverage and intensification. As these storms intensify and produce erratic to perhaps severe (58+ mph) wind gusts, they will also overspread drier fuels that have experienced greater than average fuel loading. This volatile scenario may support several lightning induced ignitions, followed by potential rapid spread from both the larger scale gradient winds/gusts, as well as from erratic gusts by strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps accompanied by scant precipitation, warranting the introduction of Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights.
Portions of the Northern Plains
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of boundary layer mixing and gradient flow will promote widespread sustained westerly winds in the 15-25 mph range across portions of the northern Plains. RH will drop below 20 percent in some spots, warranting broad Elevated highlights. Critical highlights are in place where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 15-20 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds during the afternoon, as well as where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread.
Wyoming and immediate surrounding areas
Dry downslope flow across portions of the northern Rockies will support surface winds reaching the 15-20 mph range during the afternoon, where RH should dip to 15 percent over most locales. Elevated highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. At least some wildfire spread potential exists wherever the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions can overlap receptive fuel beds.
000 FNUS21 KWNS 150644 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with multiple embedded impulses, will prevail over the western and northern CONUS as a low-amplitude mid-level trough progresses over the southern Plains today. A surface low will develop over the central Plains and encourage low-level moisture return east of the I-35 corridor. Meanwhile, dry downslope flow will usher in behind the surface low and overspread the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft will overspread this dry airmass, encouraging high-based dry thunderstorm development atop receptive fuels, supporting lightning-induced ignitions over the southern High Plains. Lastly, dry westerly gradient-induced surface winds are expected across the northern Plains, driven by a deepening surface low over western Manitoba. Overall, an active day with relatively widespread wildfire spread conditions are expected over portions of the Plains states today. ...Southern High Plains... To the west of a diffuse dryline, a deep and dry boundary layer will manifest by afternoon peak heating as downslope flow also intensifies through the day. Widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected during the afternoon, overlapping 10-15 percent RH from southern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, warranting Elevated highlights given receptive fuels. Critical highlights are also in place from southeast New Mexico into the Texas Rolling Plains, where guidance consensus shows 25+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping RH below 15 percent on a widespread basis for several hours during the afternoon. Across the southern High Plains, the approach of a low-amplitude mid-level impulse will result in seasonably cold mid-level temperatures overspreading a boundary layer extending up to 500 mb, yielding classic inverted-v soundings beneath thin CAPE (up to 500 J/kg in some forecast soundings). At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border initially by mid afternoon. Strong flow aloft will encourage rapid eastward advancement of these storms, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible with the onset of storm development. However, a greater concern exists for lightning-induced ignitions as storms progress farther to the east into the Oklahoma Panhandle toward the Texas Rolling Plains. Here, low-level moisture (while overall scant for typical deep-moist convection) will gradually deepen, supporting increased thunderstorm coverage and intensification. As these storms intensify and produce erratic to perhaps severe (58+ mph) wind gusts, they will also overspread drier fuels that have experienced greater than average fuel loading. This volatile scenario may support several lightning induced ignitions, followed by potential rapid spread from both the larger scale gradient winds/gusts, as well as from erratic gusts by strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps accompanied by scant precipitation, warranting the introduction of Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Portions of the Northern Plains... By afternoon peak heating, the combination of boundary layer mixing and gradient flow will promote widespread sustained westerly winds in the 15-25 mph range across portions of the northern Plains. RH will drop below 20 percent in some spots, warranting broad Elevated highlights. Critical highlights are in place where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 15-20 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds during the afternoon, as well as where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. ...Wyoming and immediate surrounding areas... Dry downslope flow across portions of the northern Rockies will support surface winds reaching the 15-20 mph range during the afternoon, where RH should dip to 15 percent over most locales. Elevated highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. At least some wildfire spread potential exists wherever the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions can overlap receptive fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$