Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 1
Morning Update
00z soundings across the Great Basin depict deep inverted-V profiles, strong mid-level flow (in the exception of GJT), and less than 0.8" PWAT values. The 00z sounding from REV portrays a PWAT of 0.82" (up to 0.99" at 12z), very strong LCL-EL winds, and a residual dry boundary layer. These meteorological conditions amid warm daytime temperatures and resultant instability will favor evaporation and limit precipitation efficiency, thus maintaining current isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Late this evening into the overnight hours, some convection-allowing models are indicating a few thundershowers are possible along the CA Southern Coast Ranges into parts of the Bay area. Constrained probabilities (less than 10%) of thunderstorm development, minimal instability, and forecast PWATs greater than 1" preclude IsoDryT highlights; however, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out where mixed dry fuels exist. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
Synopsis
A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S. dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are also forecast for far northern Minnesota.
Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern Colorado
East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected this afternoon.
Far Northern Minnesota
The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the 95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this afternoon.
Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of eastern Idaho
Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible.
Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon
While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based ignitions are possible.
000 FNUS21 KWNS 131648 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Morning Update... 00z soundings across the Great Basin depict deep inverted-V profiles, strong mid-level flow (in the exception of GJT), and less than 0.8" PWAT values. The 00z sounding from REV portrays a PWAT of 0.82" (up to 0.99" at 12z), very strong LCL-EL winds, and a residual dry boundary layer. These meteorological conditions amid warm daytime temperatures and resultant instability will favor evaporation and limit precipitation efficiency, thus maintaining current isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Late this evening into the overnight hours, some convection-allowing models are indicating a few thundershowers are possible along the CA Southern Coast Ranges into parts of the Bay area. Constrained probabilities (less than 10%) of thunderstorm development, minimal instability, and forecast PWATs greater than 1" preclude IsoDryT highlights; however, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out where mixed dry fuels exist. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S. dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are also forecast for far northern Minnesota. ...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern Colorado... East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected this afternoon. ...Far Northern Minnesota... The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the 95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this afternoon. ...Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of eastern Idaho... Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible. ...Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon... While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based ignitions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$