Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 2
Afternoon Update
The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was expanded into portions of the Klamath-Siskiyou region and Northern Coast Ranges of California for Day 2/Tuesday. Forecast soundings depict deep inverted-V profiles, sufficient afternoon MUCAPE values of 100-300 J/kg, PWATs less than 0.8", and fast LCL-EL mean winds of over 25 kts, warranting the expansion of highlights. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
Synopsis
Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns.
Northern High Plains
In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana, east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday afternoon.
Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada
Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions will be possible.
000 FNUS22 KWNS 131932 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Afternoon Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was expanded into portions of the Klamath-Siskiyou region and Northern Coast Ranges of California for Day 2/Tuesday. Forecast soundings depict deep inverted-V profiles, sufficient afternoon MUCAPE values of 100-300 J/kg, PWATs less than 0.8", and fast LCL-EL mean winds of over 25 kts, warranting the expansion of highlights. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern High Plains... In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana, east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada... Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$