Forecast Discussion
— Short Range
Heat builds across the central Plains as cool and unsettled weather spreads into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies ?
A nearly stationary front extending across the midsection of he country will be the focus for rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through the next couple of days. A weak warm front lifting northward will interact with the stationary front and enhance thunderstorm development in the vicinity of Iowa especially by late afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms could also become severe farther southwest across the central Plains to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles especially later today and tonight. Temperatures across the central to southern Plains soaring well into the 90s to the 100s will add fuel to the thunderstorms. Some of these high temperatures could break daily records for some locations.
Rain across New England will make for a cool and damp start for today. As the associated upper low begins to move offshore, the rain is forecast to taper off as the day progresses. A high pressure system behind the departing upper low will bring cool and fine weather for the remainder of the East Coast today but the heat over the midsection of the country will spread eastward, warming the high temperatures into the 80s for much of the East Coast on Saturday. Temperatures in New England will also recover into the 70s and 80s on Saturday before showers and embedded thunderstorms arrive later on Saturday before they gradually taper off by Sunday morning ahead of a cold front.
Meanwhile, cool and increasingly unsettled weather is forecast for the Pacific Northwest, gradually spreading into the northern Rockies as the weekend progresses. This is in response to the arrival of the next upper trough along with the passage of a cold front. Rain will be spreading farther inland with high elevation snow/mixed precipitation for the interior Pacific reaching into the northern Rockies early on Sunday. Winds will be gusty as a low pressure system begins to expand and develop over the northern and central High Plains early on Sunday. This developing low pressure system will also trigger a somewhat more widespread round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains Saturday night, reaching into the upper Midwest early on Sunday.
Kong
000 FXUS01 KWBC 150806 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 12Z Fri May 15 2026 - 12Z Sun May 17 2026 ...Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across much of Iowa with a slight risk extending down to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for today and tonight... ...Next round of strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for the northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning... ...Heat builds across the central Plains as cool and unsettled weather spreads into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies... A nearly stationary front extending across the midsection of he country will be the focus for rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through the next couple of days. A weak warm front lifting northward will interact with the stationary front and enhance thunderstorm development in the vicinity of Iowa especially by late afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms could also become severe farther southwest across the central Plains to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles especially later today and tonight. Temperatures across the central to southern Plains soaring well into the 90s to the 100s will add fuel to the thunderstorms. Some of these high temperatures could break daily records for some locations. Rain across New England will make for a cool and damp start for today. As the associated upper low begins to move offshore, the rain is forecast to taper off as the day progresses. A high pressure system behind the departing upper low will bring cool and fine weather for the remainder of the East Coast today but the heat over the midsection of the country will spread eastward, warming the high temperatures into the 80s for much of the East Coast on Saturday. Temperatures in New England will also recover into the 70s and 80s on Saturday before showers and embedded thunderstorms arrive later on Saturday before they gradually taper off by Sunday morning ahead of a cold front. Meanwhile, cool and increasingly unsettled weather is forecast for the Pacific Northwest, gradually spreading into the northern Rockies as the weekend progresses. This is in response to the arrival of the next upper trough along with the passage of a cold front. Rain will be spreading farther inland with high elevation snow/mixed precipitation for the interior Pacific reaching into the northern Rockies early on Sunday. Winds will be gusty as a low pressure system begins to expand and develop over the northern and central High Plains early on Sunday. This developing low pressure system will also trigger a somewhat more widespread round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern Plains Saturday night, reaching into the upper Midwest early on Sunday. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$