Convective Outlook
— Day 1
Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening across parts of south Florida, south-central Arizona, and western Montana.
South Florida ?
Very moist air is in place across south Florida, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. Warm surface temperatures have enabled a pocket of strong instability to develop over south Florida. The 00Z sounding at Miami has SBCAPE around 3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from near the instability max northeastward to near Lake Okeechobee. In addition to the high surface dewpoints, RAP Forecast soundings in south Florida early this evening show sufficiently steep lapse rates for isolated severe gusts. The threat is expected to end over the next hour or so.
South Central Arizona ?
At the surface, an axis of low-level convergence and instability is located over southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across south-central Arizona early this evening. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rates will support a few severe wind gusts.
Western Montana ?
At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is located over much of the northwestern U.S. this evening. At the surface, upslope flow is in place from the northern High Plains westward to the northern Rockies. An axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP from the higher terrain in southwestern Montana into the lower elevations of central Montana, where SBCAPE has peaked near 1500 J/kg according to the RAP. Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the northern Rockies. A few of these cells may persist and move into west-central Montana later this evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.
000 ACUS01 KWNS 140042 SWODY1 SPC AC 140040 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening across parts of south Florida, south-central Arizona, and western Montana. ...South Florida... Very moist air is in place across south Florida, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. Warm surface temperatures have enabled a pocket of strong instability to develop over south Florida. The 00Z sounding at Miami has SBCAPE around 3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from near the instability max northeastward to near Lake Okeechobee. In addition to the high surface dewpoints, RAP Forecast soundings in south Florida early this evening show sufficiently steep lapse rates for isolated severe gusts. The threat is expected to end over the next hour or so. ...South-central Arizona... At the surface, an axis of low-level convergence and instability is located over southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across south-central Arizona early this evening. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rates will support a few severe wind gusts. ...Western Montana... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is located over much of the northwestern U.S. this evening. At the surface, upslope flow is in place from the northern High Plains westward to the northern Rockies. An axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP from the higher terrain in southwestern Montana into the lower elevations of central Montana, where SBCAPE has peaked near 1500 J/kg according to the RAP. Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the northern Rockies. A few of these cells may persist and move into west-central Montana later this evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 07/14/2026 $$