Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132347
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection prevails from 12N to 17N between 80W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 12N20W then to 07N40W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough and E of 
45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers over the north-
central and northeast Gulf. The Atlantic ridge extends across
central Florida toward Louisiana. This pattern is supporting
moderate SE winds across the southwest Gulf with 2-4 ft seas, 
and gentle breezes elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas. 

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the area
through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf
waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forces
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
and SW Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring in the central to
SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate seas are 
noted in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident in the 
eastern Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will
support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central
Caribbean through the week. East winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward
Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and
between 70W and 80W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas 
are occurring south of 22N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through
the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate
to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north.
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
Christensen