Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151006
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W, south of 12N, 
moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry 
environment, suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W, south of 12N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N21W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present south of 07N and E of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Continental high pressure of 1017 mb centered S of Louisiana
dominates the basin, with a dissipating cold front entering the
far NW Gulf. Winds are mainly light to gentle and anticyclonic,
but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry air is in place
and no convection is occurring. 

For the forecast, the weak cold front will dissipate over the NE 
Gulf today. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate into early next
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient 
will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over 
the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next 
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has stalled in the NW Caribbean from western Cuba to
near Cozumel, and associated convection has diminished. The only
remaining convection in the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of
Panama, where the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in
thunderstorm development. The pressure gradient between high
pressure centered E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern
Colombia is leading to strong E winds in the central and southern
Caribbean, highest offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Rough seas are also present where the strong winds are ongoing.
For the remainder of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly
gentle E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong 
trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh 
trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, 
pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through 
Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the 
tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has stalled from just W of Bermuda to the Florida
Straits. Numerous moderate convection is N of 26N, E of the front
to 65W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to strong out
of the SW, and seas are rough. Elsewhere N of 20N, mainly moderate
E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of 20N, fresh trades
and rough seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into the weekend. Some fresh to strong SW winds E of 
the boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today, 
allowing rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil 
marine conditions with moderate easterly winds will prevail 
through early next week.

$$
Konarik