Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091622
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris is now centered inland near 16.9N 
98.9W at 1500 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Large S-SW swell continues to move into
the local area waters, producing seas of 3.0 to 3.5 m within 90
nm of the coast in this area. Scattered moderate convection is
inland with Boris between 97W and 99W and extends southward over
water to 15.5N. Elsewhere scattered moderate to strong
convection is N of 13.5N between 92W and 101W. The remnants of 
Boris are expected to move west-northwestward until the system 
dissipates completely in 12 hours or so. Although Boris is 
decaying, there is a continued threat of heavy rainfall, which is
the primary hazard of this slow-moving system. These rains will 
likely result in flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous 
terrain through today. This rainfall will likely produce life- 
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep 
terrain. Along the coast, large cross-equatorial S-SW swell is 
subsiding across the regional waters this morning, but will 
continue to produce large and powerful surf along the southern 
Mexican coast through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Boris NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 12.5N 87.7W at 1500 
UTC, nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 
kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft or 4.5 m. Strong
northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to plague Cristina,
limiting intensification. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted N of 07.5N between 86W and 90W. 
Cristina is moving toward the north- northeast. Cristina is 
forecast to meander near the coast today as it remains under
hostile upper level conditions, and is expected to turn toward 
the northwest and west- northwest through midweek. On the 
forecast track, Cristina should move near or along the coast of 
Nicaragua, the Gulf of Fonseca, and El Salvador during the next 
couple of days. Little change in strength is forecast today, 
followed by some weakening through midweek. Heavy rainfall associated
with Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America 
through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. In
addition, large cross-equatorial S-SW swell is slowly subsiding 
across the regional waters this morning, but will continue to 
produce large and powerful surf along the southern Mexican coast
through Wed morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Cristina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 10.5N85W, then resumes
well SW of Boris from 12N101W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 
08N123W to 08.5N136W. Other than the convection described above 
and associated with Boris and Cristina, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 01S to 09N E of 84.5W, and from 03.5N to
07N W of 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 12N between 92W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Boris near the coast of southern/SW Mexico.

Otherwise, a broad ridge extends from a 1028 mb high well NE of 
the Hawaiian Islands near 35N148W southeastward to W of the 
Revillagigedo Islands near 20N120W. Broad low pressure extends 
from southern California SSE across the eastern coast of Baja 
California Norte. This pattern is supporting moderate N-NW  
winds offshore of Baja California Norte, within fresh winds
across the outer waters, and gentle to moderate winds offshore 
Baja California Sur. NW winds near the coast at Cabo San Lucas 
continue to wrap round the southern end of the peninsula, resulting
in fresh westerly winds near the southern tip of Baja 
California, while a few areas of moderate to fresh W gap winds 
prevail inside the southern Gulf of California, mainly from 24N 
to 25.5N. Seas of 7 to 8 ft in merging N and S-SW swell prevail
across the Baja waters, except 9 to 10 ft N through W of Isla
Guadalupe. Moderate S to SW winds are in the northern Gulf of 
California N of 30N where seas are 1-3 ft, and 4-7 ft in the 
southern Gulf with southerly swell moving through the 
entrance. Moderate to fresh NW to W winds are found elsewhere 
from Cabo Corrientes to the area S of Boris, where seas are 8-14 
ft in large, cross- equatorial S-SW swell, and extend across 
across the rest of the Mexican near and offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris will move west-
northwest today and remain inland, and gradually dissipate by
this evening. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge will sustain 
gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Norte waters through 
Wed, and across the Baja Sur to Revillagigedo Islands through 
early Wed before weakening, except moderate to fresh NW-N winds 
and moderate to rough seas across the far outer waters of Baja 
Norte. Large, cross equatorial S-SW swell will continue to 
impact southern and southwestern Mexico waters through tonight, 
and the Baja California waters through Wed, and will generate 
very large and powerful surf along the local coasts and offshore
reefs. This swell will also merge with shorter period NW swell 
across the Baja waters. Marine conditions should significantly 
improve by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, 
with tranquil conditions across the offshore waters of Mexico.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, just offshore of NW Nicaragua. Cristina remains
in a hostile upper-level environment and has become nearly
stationary this morning.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds dominate the waters around Cristina
from 09.5N to 13.5N between 86W and 90W, with winds blowing
offshore across the coastal waters of El Salvador and Guatemala,
and then become NW to W moderate to fresh there farther 
offshore. Winds are gentle to moderate across the remainder of 
the waters including southern Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and 
Ecuador. Large, cross-equatorial southerly swell continues to 
impact the offshore waters of Central America and northern South 
America with seas of 7-13 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cristina will move to 12.6N 
87.8W this evening, reach near 12.9N 88.4W Wed morning, weaken 
to a tropical depression near 13.2N 89.0W Wed evening, move 
inland near 13.7N 89.5W and become post-tropical Thu morning and 
then gradually dissipate Thu evening. Otherwise, large cross- 
equatorial S-SW swell with seas of 8-14 ft will continue to 
impact the area waters into early Wed, resulting in large and 
powerful surf along the coasts. Refer to your local 
meteorological information for more details on the surf zone and 
beach impacts. Moderate seas will prevail across the offshore 
waters for the end of the week. Mainly moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail away from Cristina through the remainder of the week
and into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1009 mb Remnant Low of Amanda is analyzed near 11N139.5W. 
Small clusters of moderate convection are noted within 90 nm
across the N semicircle. Fresh to strong NE winds are found 
within 240 nm in the NW semicircle, with seas of 7-10 ft are 
found from 09.5N to 15N between 135W to beyond 140W. Otherwise, a
broad ridge extends from a 1028 mb high well NE of the Hawaiian 
Islands near 35N148W southeastward to W of the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found elsewhere S of
the ridge to 12N and W of 120W. Seas are 6-9 ft elsewhere N of 
10N and W of 120W as well as across the waters E of 120W, higher 
N of 08N and E of 104W closer to Boris and Tropical Storm 
Cristina. Seas are 6-7 ft S of 09.5N and W of 120W.

For the forecast, the Remnant Low of Amanda will continue to 
spin down and weaken early in the week, moving W of 140W later
today. Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue to 
dominate the waters N of 10N and W of 120W under ridging through
tonight or so, then will weaken as the gradient weakens by the 
middle through the end of the week. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere through tonight into early Wed, except higher 
near the offshore waters of southern Mexico and northern Central 
America near Boris and Cristina. Meanwhile, northerly swell in 
the N-central waters will produce seas of 7-10 ft for the next 
several days. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will 
continue northward through the regional waters through tonight
into early Wed, while merging with the northerly swell. Moderate
seas will dominate the open waters by the end of the week into
the upcoming weekend.
 
$$
Stripling