Convective Outlook
— Day 4-8
Discussion
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
000 ACUS48 KWNS 160648 SWOD48 SPC AC 160646 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026