Forecast Discussion
— Short Range
Snow chances continue across the upper Midwest to the upper Great Lakes ?
...An anomalously early heatwave begins to intensify and expand east across the western U.S....
Critical Risk of fire weather shifts farther south toward the lower Texas coast today ?
The strong surface low that brought some heavy snow over the upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest will continue to move northeast into Canada by tonight. Cold air will wrap around the low and northwest winds will enhance the lake effect, bringing additional snow over the Great Lakes on Tuesday before tapering off by the night. Meanwhile, a swath of light snow ahead of a warm front will move east across the northern Plains on Tuesday before reaching the Midwest and possibly into the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The Arctic cold air will gradually push further into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states converting some of the precipitation into snow over higher elevations. Although snow amounts expected to remain moderate, with the embedded shortwaves within the trough, expect moments of gusty winds and brief heavy snow bands that could cause local travel impacts. The intense cyclone that brought the series of thunderstorms and showers across much of eastern U.S. will move off the coast by tonight. Much of the trailing cold front will move over the waters, except over Florida where chances for thunderstorms continue overnight with chances for downpours.
Farther west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, increasing onshore moisture across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain will spread inland over Washington with chances for snow/mixed precipitation over the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall over portions of Washington for Tuesday and Wednesday, as soils will be relatively moist with additional 2-4" of rain expected.
Arctic air will continue to bring below normal temperatures across the South into eastern U.S. Below freezing wind chill values will penetrate down to the Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for the Arklatex region and portions of the Southeast.
An unusual weather pattern featuring a gradually intensifying upper ridge will bring an anomalously early heatwave into the western and southwestern portions of the country as the week progresses. Daily record-tying/breaking highs will become more common across southern California, the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin over the next couple of days. These temperatures will serve as a baseline for even more anomalous, more widespread record-breaking heat expected later this week. Extreme Heat Watches are in effect starting Wednesday morning for areas over the Southwest.
000 FXUS01 KWBC 161621 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 17 2026 - 00Z Thu Mar 19 2026 ...Snow chances continue across the upper Midwest to the upper Great Lakes... ...An anomalously early heatwave begins to intensify and expand east across the western U.S.... ...Critical Risk of fire weather shifts farther south toward the lower Texas coast today... The strong surface low that brought some heavy snow over the upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest will continue to move northeast into Canada by tonight. Cold air will wrap around the low and northwest winds will enhance the lake effect, bringing additional snow over the Great Lakes on Tuesday before tapering off by the night. Meanwhile, a swath of light snow ahead of a warm front will move east across the northern Plains on Tuesday before reaching the Midwest and possibly into the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. The Arctic cold air will gradually push further into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states converting some of the precipitation into snow over higher elevations. Although snow amounts expected to remain moderate, with the embedded shortwaves within the trough, expect moments of gusty winds and brief heavy snow bands that could cause local travel impacts. The intense cyclone that brought the series of thunderstorms and showers across much of eastern U.S. will move off the coast by tonight. Much of the trailing cold front will move over the waters, except over Florida where chances for thunderstorms continue overnight with chances for downpours. Farther west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, increasing onshore moisture across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain will spread inland over Washington with chances for snow/mixed precipitation over the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall over portions of Washington for Tuesday and Wednesday, as soils will be relatively moist with additional 2-4" of rain expected. Arctic air will continue to bring below normal temperatures across the South into eastern U.S. Below freezing wind chill values will penetrate down to the Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for the Arklatex region and portions of the Southeast. An unusual weather pattern featuring a gradually intensifying upper ridge will bring an anomalously early heatwave into the western and southwestern portions of the country as the week progresses. Daily record-tying/breaking highs will become more common across southern California, the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin over the next couple of days. These temperatures will serve as a baseline for even more anomalous, more widespread record-breaking heat expected later this week. Extreme Heat Watches are in effect starting Wednesday morning for areas over the Southwest. Oudit/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$