Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Missouri into western Tennessee and Kentucky WHEN: Through early Friday morning
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 1 - 4", locally higher (HRRR, WPC) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (WPC) Soil Moisture: Mostly dry (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Near to below normal (USGS)
Discussion
Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible across the area of concern as training and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall continue through the overnight and early morning hours. These storms will be capable of producing intense rainfall rates, increasing the potential for rapid runoff and localized flooding impacts. While some areas have experienced relatively dry conditions recently, additional rainfall will continue to increase soil moisture and reduce infiltration capacity, especially where multiple rounds of rainfall occur. This may lead to enhanced runoff and flooding impacts, particularly in urban areas and smaller, more responsive streams and creeks.
This is supported by the NWM SRF, which continues to highlight potential for rapid-onset flooding across the area of concern. While these probabilities have generally remained lower (25 - 50%) due to the relatively dry conditions preceding this event, increasing probabilities are expected as additional rainfall accumulates and basins respond through the overnight period. Additionally, these signals have remained consistent across multiple forecast runs, with HRRR rainfall estimates generally supporting trends shown by other high-resolution guidance and current observations.
Addressed To
WFO: LZK, MEG, SGF, PAH, LSX, LMK, OHX RFC: ORN, KRF, MSR, TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 100127 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #138 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 825 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Missouri into western Tennessee and Kentucky WHEN: Through early Friday morning FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 1 - 4", locally higher (HRRR, WPC) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (WPC) Soil Moisture: Mostly dry (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Near to below normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible across the area of concern as training and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall continue through the overnight and early morning hours. These storms will be capable of producing intense rainfall rates, increasing the potential for rapid runoff and localized flooding impacts. While some areas have experienced relatively dry conditions recently, additional rainfall will continue to increase soil moisture and reduce infiltration capacity, especially where multiple rounds of rainfall occur. This may lead to enhanced runoff and flooding impacts, particularly in urban areas and smaller, more responsive streams and creeks. This is supported by the NWM SRF, which continues to highlight potential for rapid-onset flooding across the area of concern. While these probabilities have generally remained lower (25 - 50%) due to the relatively dry conditions preceding this event, increasing probabilities are expected as additional rainfall accumulates and basins respond through the overnight period. Additionally, these signals have remained consistent across multiple forecast runs, with HRRR rainfall estimates generally supporting trends shown by other high-resolution guidance and current observations. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //Freeman ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...PAH...LSX...LMK...OHX ATTN...RFC...ORN...KRF...MSR...TIR...WPC