Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Missouri into western Tennessee and Kentucky WHEN: Through this afternoon
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 1 - 4", locally higher (HRRR) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (MRMS) Soil Moisture: Normal to above normal (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS)
Discussion
Flash, urban, and small stream flooding are all currently ongoing and expected to continue throughout the morning as storms train over the area of concern, leading to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Due to the training nature of these storms, significant amounts of rain have fallen in the overnight hours, leading to the moistening of surface soils and the elevation of local streams. This has helped facilitate the ongoing flash flood threat by limiting soil infiltration and enhancing rapid runoff, especially in small streams and urbanized landscapes.
The HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) has shown an increased response to the overnight rainfall across much of the area. In addition to ongoing higher flows, the NWM suggests additional rises through the morning. In the areas of heaviest precipitation, low annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 2 - 10% cover a large portion of the selection from Rolla, MO to Paducah, KY, indicating significant streamflows and out of bank rises. In addition, the NWM rapid onset flooding probabilities service continues to signal the increasing probabilities for flash flooding, particularly in the eastern portion of the selection.
Addressed To
WFO: LZK, MEG, SGF, PAH, LSX, LMK, OHX RFC: ORN, KRF, MSR, TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 101200 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #139 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 653 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Missouri into western Tennessee and Kentucky WHEN: Through this afternoon FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 1 - 4", locally higher (HRRR) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (MRMS) Soil Moisture: Normal to above normal (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Flash, urban, and small stream flooding are all currently ongoing and expected to continue throughout the morning as storms train over the area of concern, leading to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Due to the training nature of these storms, significant amounts of rain have fallen in the overnight hours, leading to the moistening of surface soils and the elevation of local streams. This has helped facilitate the ongoing flash flood threat by limiting soil infiltration and enhancing rapid runoff, especially in small streams and urbanized landscapes. The HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) has shown an increased response to the overnight rainfall across much of the area. In addition to ongoing higher flows, the NWM suggests additional rises through the morning. In the areas of heaviest precipitation, low annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 2 - 10% cover a large portion of the selection from Rolla, MO to Paducah, KY, indicating significant streamflows and out of bank rises. In addition, the NWM rapid onset flooding probabilities service continues to signal the increasing probabilities for flash flooding, particularly in the eastern portion of the selection. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //Ducre ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...PAH...LSX...LMK...OHX ATTN...RFC...ORN...KRF...MSR...TIR...WPC