Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Missouri into western Tennessee and Kentucky and WHEN: Into tomorrow morning
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 1 - 2", locally higher (HRRR) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (WPC, MRMS) Soil Moisture: Much above normal (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS)
Discussion
Another round of heavy rainfall is expected over the area of concern overnight, with potential for storm training that could lead to locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Much of the area has already received recent significant rainfall, leaving soils primed for efficient runoff processes and little in-channel storage capacity in small streams. This is especially true in southeast Missouri where widespread 2 - 4", locally up to 12", of rainfall have fallen over the past 24 hours. These wet antecedent conditions combined with the complex terrain of southeast Missouri make the area especially hydrologically sensitive. The rest of the area of concern is not as vulnerable to potential flooding, but nonetheless anywhere persistent, heavy rainfall sets up could see flash/urban flooding and out-of-bank rises on small streams.
The HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) has been signaling some potential for rapid-onset-flooding (ROF) across the area of concern, with ROF probabilities typically below 50% and isolated stream reaches below the 10 - 4% annual exceedance probability (AEP) thresholds. These signals are not overly impressive, but there is potentially for locally considerable impacts should persistent storm training occur, especially over the already primed soils of southeast Missouri. The peak flow arrival time service is suggesting impacts may be seen as early as midnight, and has most small streams having crested by dawn.
Addressed To
WFO: MEG, SGF, ILX, PAH, LSX, IND, LMK, OHX RFC: ORN, KRF, MSR, TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 110053 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #140 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 750 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Missouri into western Tennessee and Kentucky and southern Illinois WHEN: Into tomorrow morning FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 1 - 2", locally higher (HRRR) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (WPC, MRMS) Soil Moisture: Much above normal (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Another round of heavy rainfall is expected over the area of concern overnight, with potential for storm training that could lead to locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Much of the area has already received recent significant rainfall, leaving soils primed for efficient runoff processes and little in-channel storage capacity in small streams. This is especially true in southeast Missouri where widespread 2 - 4", locally up to 12", of rainfall have fallen over the past 24 hours. These wet antecedent conditions combined with the complex terrain of southeast Missouri make the area especially hydrologically sensitive. The rest of the area of concern is not as vulnerable to potential flooding, but nonetheless anywhere persistent, heavy rainfall sets up could see flash/urban flooding and out-of-bank rises on small streams. The HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) has been signaling some potential for rapid-onset-flooding (ROF) across the area of concern, with ROF probabilities typically below 50% and isolated stream reaches below the 10 - 4% annual exceedance probability (AEP) thresholds. These signals are not overly impressive, but there is potentially for locally considerable impacts should persistent storm training occur, especially over the already primed soils of southeast Missouri. The peak flow arrival time service is suggesting impacts may be seen as early as midnight, and has most small streams having crested by dawn. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //Bliss ATTN...WFO...MEG...SGF...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK...OHX ATTN...RFC...ORN...KRF...MSR...TIR...WPC