Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban and small stream flooding WHERE: Central Kentucky WHEN: Overnight into tomorrow morning
Discussion
Repeated rounds of rainfall, some of which may be heavy over the area of concern during the overnight hours, provides potential for flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Creeks and rivers in the area are still responding to earlier rainfall and runoff should be efficient.
The HRRR-forced NWM has consistently signaled this region over the past several hours for Rapid Onset Flooding (ROF) with probabilities generally less than 50% and Annual Exceedance Probability of streamflows generally between 20 and 50%. The model guidance is pointing more toward isolated pockets where impacts are driven by anomalous high intensity rainfall or unique topographic and urban features which increase flooding sensitivity. Model guidance generates peak stream flows arriving near midnight in the western portion of the area of concern. Although widespread flooding is not expected, isolated areas of urban flooding, ponding, and out-of-bank flows on headwater creeks are possible.
Addressed To
WFO: PAH, LMK, JKL, OHX RFC: ORN, TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 120048 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #141 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 7:40 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban and small stream flooding WHERE: Central Kentucky WHEN: Overnight into tomorrow morning FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS? QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher (HRRR) Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (WPC) Soil Moisture: Normal to above normal (0 - 40 cm, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Repeated rounds of rainfall, some of which may be heavy over the area of concern during the overnight hours, provides potential for flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Creeks and rivers in the area are still responding to earlier rainfall and runoff should be efficient. The HRRR-forced NWM has consistently signaled this region over the past several hours for Rapid Onset Flooding (ROF) with probabilities generally less than 50% and Annual Exceedance Probability of streamflows generally between 20 and 50%. The model guidance is pointing more toward isolated pockets where impacts are driven by anomalous high intensity rainfall or unique topographic and urban features which increase flooding sensitivity. Model guidance generates peak stream flows arriving near midnight in the western portion of the area of concern. Although widespread flooding is not expected, isolated areas of urban flooding, ponding, and out-of-bank flows on headwater creeks are possible. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //SMC ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...OHX ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...WPC