Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Ohio into northern West Virginia and eastern WHEN: Through this early afternoon
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 1 - 1.50", locally higher (HRRR/WPC, 6 hr) QPE: 1 - 2", locally up to 7" (MRMS, 12 hr) Rates: 0.50 - 1" / hr (MRMS) Soil Moisture: 70 - 90% (0 - 10cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Much above normal (USGS)
Discussion
Multiple rounds of rainfall are ongoing and forecast for the area of concern through this morning. Heavier rain rates or repeated rainfall over urbanized areas may initiate quick-response runoff and flooding in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Antecedent conditions are drier across western West Virginia and eastern Kentucky and should initially mitigate runoff, but rainfall from the overnight hours has moistened soils to about 70 - 90% RSM in portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. It will not take much more additional rainfall for well-saturated areas to initiate runoff and quick rises on small streams and creeks. Flashy basins with steep terrain that receive heavier rainfall may also see quick stream responses. The HRRR-forced NWM guidance has the strongest rapid onset flooding signals across portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia, indicating the most potential for impactful flash and small stream flooding across these areas.
Addressed To
WFO: PBZ, ILN, LMK, JKL, RLX, LWX RFC: RHA, TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 101431 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #205 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 618 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeast Ohio into northern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky WHEN: Through this early afternoon FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 1 - 1.50", locally higher (HRRR/WPC, 6 hr) QPE: 1 - 2", locally up to 7" (MRMS, 12 hr) Rates: 0.50 - 1" / hr (MRMS) Soil Moisture: 70 - 90% (0 - 10cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Much above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Multiple rounds of rainfall are ongoing and forecast for the area of concern through this morning. Heavier rain rates or repeated rainfall over urbanized areas may initiate quick-response runoff and flooding in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Antecedent conditions are drier across western West Virginia and eastern Kentucky and should initially mitigate runoff, but rainfall from the overnight hours has moistened soils to about 70 - 90% RSM in portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. It will not take much more additional rainfall for well-saturated areas to initiate runoff and quick rises on small streams and creeks. Flashy basins with steep terrain that receive heavier rainfall may also see quick stream responses. The HRRR-forced NWM guidance has the strongest rapid onset flooding signals across portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia, indicating the most potential for impactful flash and small stream flooding across these areas. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: water.noaa.gov/operations/ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //EAS/Ducre ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...LWX ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...WPC