Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeastern Ohio and northern/western West Virginia WHEN: This evening, potentially through the overnight hours
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 2 - 3", locally higher (HRRR/REFS/WPC) QPE: 2 - 4", locally 6"+ (MRMS, 24 hr) Rates: 1 - 2" / hr (MRMS/WPC) Soil Moisture: 60 - 85% (0 - 10cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS)
Discussion
Isolated to scattered flooding impacts are possible this evening and potentially through the overnight hours across the area of concern as convection continues to develop and expand in coverage across the region. There is some uncertainty in the magnitude and placement of heaviest rainfall totals as the latest Hi-Res guidance has struggled in capturing recent radar trends across the region. Areas near the Ohio/West Virginia border are most at risk for flooding impacts given wet soils and elevated streamflows following heavy rainfall last night. Given the added component of hilly/steep terrain across this region and the current streamflow conditions, smaller basins in this area are highly susceptible to rapid responses from enhanced runoff. This activity may linger into the overnight hours and limited visibility after dark will make seeing flooded areas more difficult. Despite high probabilities of rapid-onset flooding across portions of southeastern Ohio and western West Virginia, confidence in the placement and magnitude of these responses from the HRRR-forced NWM are lower as the HRRR struggles to account for the latest radar trends. Impacts will be greatest in areas where convection trains/stalls or wherever more robust rainfall rates materialize.
Addressed To
WFO: PBZ, ILN, CLE, RLX RFC: TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 102358 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #206 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 650 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban and small stream flooding WHERE: Southeastern Ohio and northern/western West Virginia WHEN: This evening, potentially through the overnight hours FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 2 - 3", locally higher (HRRR/REFS/WPC) QPE: 2 - 4", locally 6"+ (MRMS, 24 hr) Rates: 1 - 2" / hr (MRMS/WPC) Soil Moisture: 60 - 85% (0 - 10cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered flooding impacts are possible this evening and potentially through the overnight hours across the area of concern as convection continues to develop and expand in coverage across the region. There is some uncertainty in the magnitude and placement of heaviest rainfall totals as the latest Hi-Res guidance has struggled in capturing recent radar trends across the region. Areas near the Ohio/West Virginia border are most at risk for flooding impacts given wet soils and elevated streamflows following heavy rainfall last night. Given the added component of hilly/steep terrain across this region and the current streamflow conditions, smaller basins in this area are highly susceptible to rapid responses from enhanced runoff. This activity may linger into the overnight hours and limited visibility after dark will make seeing flooded areas more difficult. Despite high probabilities of rapid-onset flooding across portions of southeastern Ohio and western West Virginia, confidence in the placement and magnitude of these responses from the HRRR-forced NWM are lower as the HRRR struggles to account for the latest radar trends. Impacts will be greatest in areas where convection trains/stalls or wherever more robust rainfall rates materialize. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: water.noaa.gov/operations/ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //JDP ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...CLE...RLX ATTN...RFC...TIR...WPC