Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and small stream flooding possible WHERE: Northeastern Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, and northwestern WHEN: Late evening through early tomorrow morning
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 1 - 3", locally higher (HRRR/RRFS) Rates: 1 - 2"+ (HRRR/RRFS) Soil Moisture: Variable (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS)
Discussion
A line of heavy thunderstorms currently over eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania will move into the area of concern within the next several hours and potentially bring flash and small stream flooding impacts beginning overnight and through early tomorrow morning. While soils have recovered from recent rainfall events, streamflows are at or above climatological normals for this time of year. There is also an added component of steep/hilly terrain across portions of eastern Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, and West Virginia, and given the current streamflow conditions, smaller basins in this area are favorable for rapid responses from enhanced runoff. The overnight timing further increases concerns, as limited visibility may make identifying flooded crossings exceptionally difficult.
The HRRR-forced National Water Model has been indicating medium probabilities of rapid-onset flooding across southeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern West Virginia, with basin averages ranging between 26 and 75%. Corresponding annual exceedance probabilities of 50 - 10%, as well as sufficient forecast unit discharge values, increases confidence in the likelihood of small stream flooding in this region. suggesting that at least modest stream rises are possible. While confidence for hydrologic impacts is highest in southeastern Ohio and northwestern West Virginia, flooding impacts will be greatest in areas where convection trains/stalls and where more intense rainfall rates materialize.
Addressed To
WFO: PBZ, ILN, LMK, JKL, RLX RFC: TIR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 100123 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #204 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 819 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and small stream flooding possible WHERE: Northeastern Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, and northwestern West Virginia WHEN: Late evening through early tomorrow morning FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 1 - 3", locally higher (HRRR/RRFS) Rates: 1 - 2"+ (HRRR/RRFS) Soil Moisture: Variable (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... A line of heavy thunderstorms currently over eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania will move into the area of concern within the next several hours and potentially bring flash and small stream flooding impacts beginning overnight and through early tomorrow morning. While soils have recovered from recent rainfall events, streamflows are at or above climatological normals for this time of year. There is also an added component of steep/hilly terrain across portions of eastern Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, and West Virginia, and given the current streamflow conditions, smaller basins in this area are favorable for rapid responses from enhanced runoff. The overnight timing further increases concerns, as limited visibility may make identifying flooded crossings exceptionally difficult. The HRRR-forced National Water Model has been indicating medium probabilities of rapid-onset flooding across southeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern West Virginia, with basin averages ranging between 26 and 75%. Corresponding annual exceedance probabilities of 50 - 10%, as well as sufficient forecast unit discharge values, increases confidence in the likelihood of small stream flooding in this region. suggesting that at least modest stream rises are possible. While confidence for hydrologic impacts is highest in southeastern Ohio and northwestern West Virginia, flooding impacts will be greatest in areas where convection trains/stalls and where more intense rainfall rates materialize. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: water.noaa.gov/operations/ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //JDP ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX ATTN...RFC...TIR...WPC